THE ECONOMIC TIMES

Analysing The Political Economy


What You Haven't Heard From The Sue Gray Report

Most of us are quite bored with the Sue Gray report story, a bit like the dreary details of the wag’s catfight in court over the last few weeks. It’s exactly what Downing Street wanted in the first place, to drag it out so far, we’d all get bored with it. But there is a lot more to this story than we are being told. The Chief Political commentator, Political Editor and Deputy Political Editor of the Sunday Times have reported an extraordinary story that frankly should set our emotions alight.

Just to start, it appears that No10 had been given enough time to not just manipulate the media narrative, but went more than one step further by pressuring Sue Gray into changing much of her report, so as to be less damaging.

Steve Barclay, his chief of staff, Guto Harri, his director of communications and Samantha Jones, the permanent secretary at No 10, are all actors in this game of thrones.

It is clear from this detailed 3,000-word piece by The Times that the office of Downing Street was not chaotic by design but simply because there is no one in charge. It is also apparent that months of turmoil have now slowly but surely led to a slowly growing pool of Tory MPs calling for him to go.

In the meantime, the battle of the narrative continues. It now appears that the Sue Gray report is not as independent as we have all been told for weeks on end by a procession of Tory faithfulls. Operation Save Big Dog — the name given to the plan to shore up Johnson when the partygate scandal threatened him in the new year was back in full swing.

It is alleged that partial drafts of Gray’s report were circulating in No 10, and that Gray was lobbied on the night before publication to make changes by three senior civil servants.

They urged her not to publish the names of some of those who had attended the 12 law-breaking parties. Other changes were also requested to passages in the report that made reference to Carrie Johnson, the prime minister’s wife.

Gray was unimpressed and stated that she would need to be forced to do so – a move that would have required a senior minister to sign off amendments, signalling publicly that the revisions had been made against her will.

According to The Times, a Whitehall source said: “On Tuesday night, one last attempt was made to persuade her [Gray] to omit names from the report, but she made it plain to them the only way that was going to happen was if they issued her with an instruction.”

The end result was that a number of names were removed from the report. From the initial report, 30 people who had been named had been reduced to 12.

It is then alleged in The Times article that changes to the text of the report were also made at the last minute. At least two other permanent secretaries are understood to have pressured her to protect colleagues caught up in the scandal. “Despite the excisions, Gray’s report, detailing 4 am drinking, brawls, vomiting and red wine up the walls-  was damning.”  Her report also stated that security guards, known as custodians, and cleaners who tried to stop the parties were abused.

And yet, Sue Gray’s report might have been even more embarrassing. A Downing Street official said Gray also investigated claims that two couples were caught having sex in the building. And it doesn’t end with a drunken atmosphere within Downing Street. Two sources clearly state that at Chequers, the prime minister’s country retreat, staff left after “personality clashes” with the Johnsons with “one leaving housekeeping because she found it a nightmare.”

Insiders say the laissez-faire approach comes directly from Boris Johnson. “He absolutely thinks none of the rules apply to him,” said a source who knows him well. “He’s been telling everyone for months, ‘I’ve done nothing wrong’. The reason the apologies sound so fake is that he doesn’t think he needs to apologise.

Back in Downing Street, Johnson gives off an attitude of not really caring about much at all.

“You had people coming in from miles away to be at Downing Street by 7.30 am but he (Johnson) couldn’t be bothered to walk down two flights of stairs to get there on time,” a source said.

Some of Johson’s staff used to pretend Johnson was in meetings to cover for him while he was having an afternoon nap.

The result of all of these self-inflicted problems within Downing Street has been the collapse of Tory support in the south that is caused by Johnson’s unpopularity. Brand Johnson is now one about a lack of trust and not caring about much other than his own political power. Once voters have made up their mind, that will not change.

YouGov modelling published on Friday suggests that if an election were held now the Conservatives would hold just three of 88 battleground seats, with Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat falling to Labour. It also predicts that Labour will reclaim Wakefield, which the Tories won in 2019, in the by-election on June 23. On the same day party sources say they are resigned to losing the Tiverton & Honiton seat to the Liberal Democrats, an election caused by the resignation of Neil Parish who admitted watching pornography in parliament.

Even when the government attempt to make big policy changes to get voters back on its side, such as the U-turn on Labour’s suggestion of a windfall tax, voters are no longer convinced the Tory party are on their side in the face of a cost-of-living crisis.

The Times reports that Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, presented his plan to Johnson to impose a windfall tax on the oil and gas companies. But for several weeks Sunak had kept his cards close to his chest though. He ordered Treasury officials to gameplan different options but did not share them with fellow ministers. When the cabinet was held in Stoke-on-Trent, two weeks ago, the chancellor broke off from drinks with colleagues and hid in a cleaning cupboard with his laptop on a trestle table to get a briefing.

The deal was agreed, however, only after Johnson demanded advice from a panel of four economists. Insiders say the meeting was highly significant because it was evidence Johnson is keen to assert his position as “first lord of the Treasury” and go around his chancellor.

Let’s not forget the other outcome to this windfall tax – it is effectively a boost of about 1.5 per cent of GDP. Every household will get a £400 fuel bill rebate but those on means-tested benefits, pensioners and the disabled will get more. This is something Johnson will no doubt be saying a lot of – that the fall GDP is not as bad as predicted.

However, throughout all of this, the chaos continues. Johnson still faces an investigation by the Commons privileges committee into whether he intentionally misled parliament about the parties. Not long after, the official inquiry into the pandemic will take evidence from senior aides and officials, many of whom have been alienated by the slapdash behaviour in No 10. Then there is the constant back-stabbing and briefings from junior civil servants who were fined while the PM escaped. “The problem he’s going to have with the privilege committee and the Covid inquiry is that he’s now got no friends,” a former official said. “I know a lot of civil servants who think, ‘We can’t trust him, he lies” – the Times reports.

The £15 billion spending splurge to combat the cost of living crisis is significant, as many voters may well see this as a moment the government stepped up when it mattered and it could shape the outcome of the next general election. The Sue Gray report, along with many other scandals may well be forgotten by then. That in itself may suggest that a general election will come as early as the summer of next year before economic news gets worse.

 

 

 

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