THE ECONOMIC TIMES

Analysing The Political Economy

$200 a barrel – Top oil traders prediction

24th March 2022 | MONEY
$200 a barrel - Top oil traders prediction

Economic Times 07.58: The FT reports that – “Some of the world’s most respected oil traders have predicted crude prices could climb beyond $200 a barrel this year owing to a growing international boycott of Russia and a lack of alternative sources of supply. Pierre Andurand, one of the sector’s best-known hedge fund managers, said supplies of Russian oil into Europe would disappear in the aftermath of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, leading to a lasting reshaping of global energy markets.

Andurand went on to say – “Wakey, wakey. We are not going back to normal business in a few months,” he told the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne. “I think we’re losing the Russian supply on the European side forever.”

Crude could even hit $250 barrel this year, double current levels, he said.

Oil prices jumped 5% to over $121 a barrel yesterday as disruptions to Russian and Kazakh crude exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline added to worries over tight global supplies.

Matters got worse when the latest rise came as Brent crude prices lifted on the back of more supply uncertainty, particularly in light of attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia over the weekend.

Yesterday, we saw chancellor Rishi Sunak make his spring statement that turned out to be a mini-budget. The so-called giveaway really saw the Treasury office set to rake in billions of pounds in extra oil and gas revenue as the conflict in Ukraine drives up energy prices even further.

At $122 a barrel, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) now expects the taxman to receive £25billion from the North Sea fossil fuel industry over the six years to 2026-27.

That is £13.6billion more than forecast in the Budget just six months ago, meaning the tax take will more than double. The one year 5p tax reduction at the pump for one year will cost the Treasury £2.5 billion.

 

 

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